Centrists Prefer the GOP, But For How Long?

New data from the Pew Research Center reveals an interesting trend among Centrists. Over the last five years, they’ve moved heavily over to the GOP. (To find out your political leanings as determined by Pew, go here.) Of Centrists, the research says:

In the middle sit three groups: Upbeats, Disaffecteds, and Bystanders. The first are well-educated, generally informed, and politically moderate, and feel good about their personal finances and the direction of the country. The second group is cynical and less well-off. The third, mostly young adults, are largely on the sidelines.

During the 1990s, these three middle groups were not especially partisan, but they now lean decidedly toward the GOP. The Upbeats, who still do not formally identify themselves as Republican, voted for Bush 4 to 1 last November. Part of that is a result of Bush's personal appeal to this group, and so with Bush not on the ticket four years from now, Democrats are still hopeful they can lure some of these voters into their camp.

This confirms what I’ve been seeing from my vantage point as a Centrist blogger (and as someone whom Pew considers an Upbeat). While neither party caters to the center much, most prominent Centrists are in the Republican Party. Giuliani, Schwarzenegger, McCain, Voinovich, Specter, Chaffee, et al are much more active and forceful than their Democratic counterparts who, while moderate, do not seem nearly as energetic and are much less likely to go against their party for the greater good of the country.

I also think Centrists admire new ideas that are not predicated on outdated ways of thinking. Democrats still have an overriding obsession with perceived oppression and this inhibits their ability to address modern concerns with new ideas.

But, as one of the few Upbeats who voted for Kerry (grudgingly), I can attest to a great degree of Centrist dissatisfaction with the Republican agenda. In the same way that Democrats have become one-sided in their view that all problems are the result of oppression and require government intervention to fix, Republicans have all but embraced a one-sided view that all problems are the result of moral deficiency and require government intervention to fix.

Centrists aren’t big fans of big government. If the Republicans have indeed become just another big-government party, then the Democrats have a great opportunity to reinvent themselves and win back us Centrists. But if they have a will to do that, it’s not yet evident. The Democrats will probably need to suffer another defeat before they turn their ship around.

Thanks to The Smoking Room for the tip on this story.